Will the TN visa be the next victim? US-Canada Relations Take a Dramatic Turn – USMCA at a Crossroads
Posted on January 25, 2026 by Warren Wen | Category: English
Will the TN visa be the next victim?
US-Canada Relations Take a Dramatic Turn – USMCA at a Crossroads
- The Storm Begins in Davos – The Prelude to a Diplomatic Clash
From the stillness of a North American winter to the howling winds of the Davos snow-capped peaks, 2026 became a watershed year for US-Canada relations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum, which was supposed to be just a routine diplomatic appearance, unexpectedly ignited the first crack in the North American political structure.
At Davos, Carney pointed out that “some hegemonic countries are weaponizing tariffs and financial infrastructure” and warned that if middle powers do not unite, they “will become someone else’s prey.”
Trump immediately retaliated, accusing Canada of being “not grateful enough” and publicly declaring that “Canada survives on the United States,” and subsequently withdrew Canada’s invitation to participate in his “Peace Commission.”
In just a few days, US-Canada relations plummeted from an Arctic chill to a freezing point. This war of words was no accident; it is a surface crack revealing deeper structural changes. The North American order is being reshaped.
- Ally or Vassal – Deep Shocks in US-Canada Relations
For over 70 years, the US-Canada relationship has been built on a “moderate, stable, and low-key” structure: complementary economies, interconnected markets, and shared security. Canada exports approximately 80% of its goods to the United States, while the US considers Canada its most reliable border partner. However, the Davos controversy in 2026 brought a crucial fact to the attention of all observers:
For the first time, Canada has publicly questioned the North American order itself.
Carney’s remarks were not a “slip of the tongue,” but a strategic declaration. Upon returning home, he further emphasized: “Canada does not depend on the United States for survival; Canada prospers because we are Canadians.” The logic behind this is very clear:
Canada is preparing for a “post-American North American order”.
From Canada’s recent signing of a roadmap for economic and trade cooperation with China, to Carney’s pledge to significantly increase defense spending, and his call for middle powers to band together, these actions all demonstrate that:
Canada is reducing its single strategic dependence on the United States.
For the United States, this is undoubtedly a “defection.” For Canada, it is a “self-rescue.”
III. The Fate of the USMCA—A Negotiation That Could Rewrite the North American Economic Landscape
The timing of the Davos event was extremely sensitive.
This summer, the United States will formally initiate the USMCA renegotiation process.
According to media reports, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick has clearly stated:
The trade agreement between Canada and China will affect the negotiating atmosphere of the USMCA.
In other words, the US will use Canada’s “pro-China” stance as a bargaining chip. This is a situation unprecedented in North America over the past thirty years. More seriously, discussions have arisen within the US government regarding whether to raise the rules of origin for North American goods, tighten supply chain requirements, expand energy and security provisions, and rewrite labor and digital trade standards in the renewal agreement. The objectives are very direct:
This would make Canada more institutionally dependent on the United States, rather than other economies.
Why did Carney retaliate? Why did he publicly challenge the American narrative? Because Canada understands:
If the USMCA fails to renew in the future, Canada will suffer disastrous consequences.
A Canadian think tank predicts that if the USMCA (United States Management Act) is terminated, Canada’s GDP will shrink by 2.8%-4.2% within five years, and 500,000 jobs will be lost. This is not just an economic issue, but also relates to the core question of this article.
- The Dangerous Period of TN Visas – Will the North American Mobility System Be Sacrificed?
Immigration systems are the most vulnerable link in political conflict.
The TN visa, a product of the NAFTA/USMCA framework, is a “symbolic institution” symbolizing stable US-Canada relations. It allows Canadian professionals to quickly obtain US work authorization and has historically been stable and low-controversial. However, in today’s geopolitical landscape, it has suddenly become vulnerable.
- Why does TN face risks?
❶ It is a legacy of NAFTA—it has no “separate legal source” and is entirely dependent on the USMCA.
If the USMCA is rewritten, the TN must also be rewritten. This is determined by the legal structure.
❷ Trump’s shift in attitude toward Canada is now clear.
From the public humiliation at Davos to denouncing Canada as “living off the United States,” and then to the Commerce Minister’s hints at “using the USMCA to pressure Canada,” TN is the easiest soft target to “knock on.”
❸ Protectionist sentiment rebounds within the United States
Amidst rising employment pressures and widespread anti-immigrant sentiment among Republican grassroots members, “eliminating or tightening the TN visa to prioritize American jobs” would have political benefits. Currently, some members of Congress have proposed a review of whether the North American professional visa system is harming the US labor market.
- Real-world risk assessment: Will TN be cancelled?
Short term (next year): Low to medium risk
The United States will not abolish TN immediately, but with the USCIS strictly controlling TN applications, it will continue to introduce implementation-level restrictions (such as review of occupation lists and increased documentation requirements).
Medium term (2-3 years): Medium to high risk. If the USMCA negotiations break down and relations between the United States and Canada deteriorate further, TN may become a symbolic policy to be “sacrificed”.
Long-term (3 years or more): depends on
① Will the USMCA be renewed on schedule?
② Will US-Canada relations be restored?
③ Will Canada continue to deepen multilateral trade with China, the EU, etc.?
In other words: Whether the TN (Transfer of Trade Agreement) continues is not a legal issue, but a geopolitical one.
Furthermore, the results of this year’s midterm elections will have a profound impact on the long-term trajectory of US-Canada relations.
- Canadians in the Storm – Coping Strategies for Those Relying on TN Jobs
For hundreds of thousands of Canadian professionals working in the U.S. relying on their TN visas, this isn’t a theoretical issue, but a matter of vital interest. Here are some feasible and pragmatic “preparatory solutions”:
Strategy A: If you can get a green card, do so as soon as possible (especially EB-2/EB-1).
While the TN visa is fast, it doesn’t lead to a green card. In an era of rising political risk, there is no sense of security without legal status.
For Canadian professionals, EB-2 NIW, EB-1A, and EB-1B are often less competitive and have shorter waiting times compared to applicants from other countries.
Strategy B: Convert TN visa to H-1B (if the occupation category allows).
Although H-1B visas have quota restrictions and are not a perfect choice, they have stronger legal independence and will not be shaken by USMCA negotiations.
Strategy C: Communicate immigration planning with your employer in advance
Employers are required to include “identity security clauses” or “identity change commitments” in employment contracts to prevent TNs from being caught off guard by political upheavals.
Strategy D: Preparing Plan B – Intra-company transfers (L-1)
The L-1 visa is not subject to national quotas and is a route with extremely low political risk.
Strategy E: Monitor political developments in the US and Canada to avoid a sudden supply disruption.
Professionals should regularly review:
✔ USMCA negotiation progress
✔ US Department of Commerce and DHS policy updates on TN
✔ Congressional legislative developments regarding the movement of people in North America
This is the minimum requirement to protect yourself.
- A Redefined Era: Historical Observations on Trump
Commenting on Trump always easily leads to getting caught up in American partisan politics. But if we step outside the Republican and Democratic perspectives and look at it from a historical standpoint, he is indeed a game-changer.
Yes, he exhibited a stronger urge for centralization;
Yes, his patience with allies significantly diminished;
Yes, his trade policies often caught the diplomatic system off guard.
But we must also acknowledge:
The United States’ high debt, hollowed-out industries, fragile supply chains, and declining global credibility are not problems caused by Trump, but rather the result of decades of structural accumulation.
Trump is not a moderate reformer; he prefers the drastic measures of a revolutionary.
This approach is drastic, crude, and potentially risky, but it has a certain logic within the American system:
When mild treatments fail, voters tend to choose the one who dares to perform surgery.
In this sense, he is not simply a destroyer, nor a mere strongman, but more like those “reformers at the turning points of order and chaos” in history—or “heroes” of the same kind.
Historically, they often did not have good endings, but they did indeed drive the times forward.
From this perspective, the conflict between Trump and Carney is not only a clash of strategies between the two countries, but also symbolizes:
An old order is collapsing, while a new order has yet to be formed.
VII. The Prelude to a New War in North America—Uncertainty and Hope Amidst Turmoil
The conflict in Davos was not the whole storm, but merely the first warning sign of the shifting power plates in North America.
The renewal negotiations for the USMCA, Canada’s strategic diversification, protectionist sentiment within the United States, and the reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape will all continue to unfold over the next three years. But history never follows a single path.
While the United States is assertive, it needs a stable North American supply chain; while Canada is retaliating, it cannot afford a complete decoupling from the United States.
Despite frequent trade conflicts, it remains difficult to completely reverse economic dependence. This means:
The USMCA is at risk of collapse, but it also has the realistic motivation to be “forced to maintain” it.
The TN visa may be politically motivated, but its complete cancellation is not the mainstream expectation.
The real key lies in whether the US and Canada can find a new strategic balance: one that makes the US feel its “allies are reliable” while allowing Canada to retain its “autonomy.” The storm continues, but history tells us:
Every rewriting of the order comes with risks, but also with opportunities for reconstruction.
The future of North America remains undecided.
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